In my opinion, Babatunde Raji Fashola’s
appointment as the minister in charge of the ministries of Power, Works &
Housing is a make or mar assignment for him. If he succeeds, his image as a
performer would soar beyond limits and his electoral value come 2019 and beyond
would skyrocket. Above all, the nation would be better for it in terms of the provision
of basic infrastructure and developmental growth. On the flip side, if he
fails, he would be demystified as a person and perhaps slip into political
oblivion. In the event of the latter
happening, Nigeria would be the worse for it and my prayer like that of most
patriots is that he succeeds so that the nation can equally succeed.
Sadly, the reality on ground makes me
not to have much faith in my prayer for him to succeed. To be frank with you, I
do not envy Fashola at this moment. Those who say he is highly favoured by the
Buhari administration or regard him as a “lucky” guy to have been given such a
“juicy” portfolio do not seem to be conscious of the magnitude of the load he
has been asked to carry on his shoulders. Yes, he is a super minister but he
has a super task to perform. It seems to me that the challenge of translating
the bulk of APC’s electoral promises to reality now rests squarely on Fashola
and the President appears to have faith in his ability to do so.
But would you blame the President? Fashola
is a man most people believe performed excellently in Lagos State as a governor
and stands head and shoulders above many of his colleagues. Even the Western
media that is ever critical of African leaders, joined the bandwagon in
eulogizing his achievements. To many international analysts, Fashola is an
isolated case of exemplary leadership on the Continent of Africa. One therefore
cannot fault President Buhari in assigning these key yet knotty ministries to a
man who is apparently tested and trusted.
My worry however is that Fashola’s achievement
in Lagos that recommends him for this sort of onerous assignment may have been
a bit exaggerated. It is not unlikely that some level of political and media
propaganda have gone in over the years to shore up the image of the Fashola
brand to what it is today. If that is correct, then Fashola may have been
placed at a very high pedestal that so much will be expected from him by the
Nigerian public. This indeed will make his job tougher. Mind you, one is not
saying Fashola did not perform well as a governor but whether the loud applause
is equal to the performance is a different thing entirely. But the President
seems to be on the affirmative on this hence he entrusted so much responsibility
on him in his administration.
For now, it remains to be seen how
Fashola will be able to discharge this enormous duty imposed on him to give the
nation steady power supply, fix our bad roads and put in place a credible
national housing policy that will ensure shelter for all.
Even the most avid fan of Fashola would
readily agree that fixing Nigeria is a different ball game from fixing Lagos. Fashola
was practically the CEO while in Lagos. He took decisions and saw to their
executions without waiting for approval from any authority. As a cabinet
minister, it will not be so. He will need to sell his ideas to the President
and pray that he buys them. That may not be an easy task against the background
of contending interests jostling for the President’s attention and approval.
And where he succeeds in getting the President to buy his ideas, he would still
hope and pray he gets the right allocation for their execution. It goes without
saying that in the absence of adequate funding, Fashola cannot put up a credible
performance.
And talking about funding, Fashola had a
healthy financial chest to work with in Lagos. With an enviable internally
generated revenue base, an equally hefty federal allocation and a frequent
recourse to borrowing, Lagos was rarely starved of fund to execute programmes.
That is not likely to be the scenario Fashola will encounter as the Minister
for Power, Works and Housing. With the price of crude oil still tumbling and a
President who is already drumming about a nation that is broke, your bet is as
good as mine that the right money for Fashola to perform will not be made
available to him.
The power sector that he is going to
oversee has been largely privatized but the distribution companies (DISCOs) are
not financially healthy and indeed still tottering. The sector needs heavy
financial investment if steady power supply must be achieved. Money is needed
to improve on the distribution network to ensure the efficient transmission of
power generated to the homes of Nigerians. As we speak, the transmission
companies can only transmit about 5,000 megawatts (mw) to our homes owing to
the poor state of the nation’s transmission network. Accordingly, even if the
GENCOs (generating companies) can magically come up with 15,000 megawatts in
the nearest future, this cannot rub on power supply in the country because we
still do not have the right transmission network to wheel same to the homes of
consumers for the much needed improvement in power supply. To make the
distribution network more efficient will take time and heavy investment- two
factors that seem to be in short supply at the moment.
Meanwhile, the operation of the DISCOs
is further hampered by debt owed them by consumers that is in the region of N40
billion according to the operators of the DISCOs Ironically, the bulk of this
debts is owed the DISCOs by Federal Government Ministries, Departments and
Agencies (MDAs), and the military. Will Fashola be able to appeal to these
agencies to pay their debts to the DISCOs or will it be business as usual where
government agencies and the military see power as another national cake they
don’t need to pay for to enjoy?
In the area of housing, Fashola was
often criticized for building houses for the rich while he was governor in
Lagos State. What would be his policy as the Minister for Housing? Lagos State
has more than a fair share of the rich in Nigeria so, Fashola could easily get
away with building housing units for the rich to buy instead of building low
cost housing units that are affordable to the masses. But will the same
template work at the national level? Would he still adopt the mortgage policy
he adopted in Lagos for Nigeria?
In the area of road construction where Fashola
got so many accolades as a governor in Lagos, it remains to be seen if he can
repeat that performance at the federal level? With the dwindling of revenue
accruing to the Federal Government, will Fashola get adequate allocation to
construct roads across the country as he did in Lagos? Will he experiment with
concession of roads as he did in Lagos? A very strong advocate of taxation,
will Fashola embark on the tolling of Federal highways across Nigeria to be
able to generate money to maintain existing roads and construct new ones? And how
would Nigerians react to all of this especially when Fashola’s party, the APC wants
us to see it as a welfarist party?
Time will tell how all of this will pan
out. Suffices to say that Fashola has a mean feat to perform as the Minister
for Power, Works and Housing. In the euphoria of his appointment as Power
minister by President Obasanjo, the late Bola Ige boasted that he would turn
stones to bread in the power sector and ensure that Nigerians have stable power
supply. Unfortunately, he was overwhelmed by the problems of the power sector.
He just couldn’t make headway and President Obasanjo created a soft-landing for
him as it were, by sending him to the Justice Ministry –where he actually ought
to be in the first place. Will Fashola (a lawyer and Senior Advocate like Bola
Ige) succeeds in turning stones to bread in the Power Ministry or he would be
overwhelmed by the problems of the sector as it happened to Bola Ige? Your
guess is as good as mine.
*Originally published on the 29th of November, 2015
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