2015 ELECTIONS: THE CHANGE WE REALLY NEED.

We are in the middle of electioneering campaign and facts appear to be no more sacred. Propaganda and outright lies are being peddled as facts in the public space and the unwary albeit the gullible are buying into them with all religiousness.
Of the two main political parties, the All Progressives Party (APC) is clearly ahead in the propaganda war while its main rival, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) tags along. The APC propaganda machinery is so well honed and working at optimal level at the moment. It is clearly on the offensive while the PDP is on the defensive.
Preoccupied with sharing the spoils of power, the ruling PDP perhaps paid little or no attention to the media offensive orchestrated against it by the APC in the months leading to the elections. PDP trusted in its achievements under President Jonathan in the past six years believing that flaunting those achievements before the electorate was all that it needed to convince the electorates to vote for the party in the election.
Sadly, the APC does not believe the President achieved ANYTHING in the past six years. The thrust of its campaign is to discredit whatever the PDP lay claims to as the achievement of President Jonathan in the past six years. And in fairness to them, they have succeeded in pooh-poohing whatever achievement the ruling party can lay claim to in power. They have succeeded in bombarding the media space with the CHANGE message and it is really stifling for the PDP. The insecurity in the northern parts of the country occasioned by the raging insurgency becomes the benchmark for rubbishing the achievements of President Jonathan.
While they press on with the smear campaign against the PDP on the one hand, the APC on the other hand is promising us a near state of Paradise where there will be jobs for all the youths, introduction of a social security system, elimination of insurgency within few weeks, stoppage of kidnapping and other acts of criminality and the economy to be put on track as quickly as possible. What is more, their Presidential flag bearer, Mohammadu Buhari performed wonders while he was military head of state and is going to perform such wonders again. He fought corruption to a standstill; built refineries as a Minister; stopped insurgency, blah, blah, blah and the logical conclusion is that he did it before; he will do it again.
But remind APC apologists that Buhari truncated our democracy via a coup d’état; enacted retroactive laws while in office; gagged the press and suppressed freedom of speech; etc, they are quick to tell you that Buhari has since metamorphosed to a democrat or they deliberately distort historical facts to disprove your assertion and portray the retired general as an angel who is only a victim of political blackmail.
Of course, the APC is aware that a substantial number of the eligible voters in this election were not yet born or still toddlers when Buhari was Head of State. They did not witness firsthand the regime of Muhammadu Buhari and be in a position to judge for themselves. Propaganda and brainwashing therefore recommend themselves as tools to be used in capturing the votes of young Nigerians. Frustrated by the social-economic environment of the Nigeria nation, our youths naturally yearn for a change and what could be better than a change that would usher into office a man who fought corruption to a standstill, built refineries, stopped insurgency and performed other miracles while he was Head of State?
Obviously, the promoters of the Buhari enterprise are merely taking advantage of the frustration and seemingly hopelessness that many Nigerians especially the youths now face in the Nigerian state to waggle themselves to power.  They have not shown us the blueprint Buhari intends to implement to perform the economic miracle he is promising especially in the face of dwindling oil revenues. Are we to take Buhari serious when he declared on national television that he would stabilize the world’s oil market as his strategy to manage the economy?
Buhari’s sponsors also know that his anti-corruption reputation is built on sand and would quickly fall when subjected to scrutiny. Buhari as military head of state set up military tribunals headed by military men to try politicians for corruption. Within weeks, trials were concluded and jail sentences ranging from 50 to 300 years were handed to the accused persons by the tribunals. So inglorious were these tribunals that the Nigerian Bar Association staged a boycott of the tribunals as an expression of its disapproval of them.
Interestingly, while Buhari hounded southern governors into prison, he shielded northern governors particularly those of Hausa-Fulani extraction from trial. A notorious case is that of the then governor of Niger State, Awwal Ibrahim who was reportedly arrested at Heathrow Airport in London with huge sums of money in different currencies. He was never tried by Buhari neither was Shehu Shagari the President and leader of the NPN put on trial. These are the antecedents and credentials of the man APC is telling us will come as a civilian president and “wipe out corruption” in Nigeria.
The Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) that Buhari headed under Abacha was also a citadel of corruption. While Buhari himself might not have enriched himself, his cronies and those who worked under him did so handsomely. How Buhari will control the amalgam of visibly corrupt politicians that abound in APC when he comes to power and be able to “wipe out” corruption remains to be seen.
For now, the die is cast. Nigerians would have to choose between two difficult options: Buhari and Jonathan.  The Buhari option appears attractive to the populace at least for the sake of change. But discerning minds know it is nothing but an illusion and one that has the potentials to drive the nation backwards. Truth is the Nigerian state is a faulty vehicle with terribly bad engine and electrical system. Merely changing the driver is not going to help. The system needs an overhaul and the National Conference made very salient recommendations that can overhaul this country for good.
Sadly the APC never supported the Confab and has never pretended to be interested in implementing its recommendation. They want us to believe that if we change the driver this dangerously faulty vehicle called Nigeria will take us to destination. Unfortunately, we cannot run away from the truth staring us in the face that the country needs a system format. And that is the change we desperately need and not the change from one ruling cabal to another as envisaged by the APC.

*First published on the 18^th of January, 2015 in Pointblanknew.com.

http://pointblanknews.com/pbn/articles-opinions/2015-elections-change-really-need/

SUPER MINISTER: CAN FASHOLA TURN STONES TO BREAD?*

In my opinion, Babatunde Raji Fashola’s appointment as the minister in charge of the ministries of Power, Works & Housing is a make or mar assignment for him. If he succeeds, his image as a performer would soar beyond limits and his electoral value come 2019 and beyond would skyrocket. Above all, the nation would be better for it in terms of the provision of basic infrastructure and developmental growth. On the flip side, if he fails, he would be demystified as a person and perhaps slip into political oblivion.  In the event of the latter happening, Nigeria would be the worse for it and my prayer like that of most patriots is that he succeeds so that the nation can equally succeed.

Sadly, the reality on ground makes me not to have much faith in my prayer for him to succeed. To be frank with you, I do not envy Fashola at this moment. Those who say he is highly favoured by the Buhari administration or regard him as a “lucky” guy to have been given such a “juicy” portfolio do not seem to be conscious of the magnitude of the load he has been asked to carry on his shoulders. Yes, he is a super minister but he has a super task to perform. It seems to me that the challenge of translating the bulk of APC’s electoral promises to reality now rests squarely on Fashola and the President appears to have faith in his ability to do so. 

But would you blame the President? Fashola is a man most people believe performed excellently in Lagos State as a governor and stands head and shoulders above many of his colleagues. Even the Western media that is ever critical of African leaders, joined the bandwagon in eulogizing his achievements. To many international analysts, Fashola is an isolated case of exemplary leadership on the Continent of Africa. One therefore cannot fault President Buhari in assigning these key yet knotty ministries to a man who is apparently tested and trusted.

My worry however is that Fashola’s achievement in Lagos that recommends him for this sort of onerous assignment may have been a bit exaggerated. It is not unlikely that some level of political and media propaganda have gone in over the years to shore up the image of the Fashola brand to what it is today. If that is correct, then Fashola may have been placed at a very high pedestal that so much will be expected from him by the Nigerian public. This indeed will make his job tougher. Mind you, one is not saying Fashola did not perform well as a governor but whether the loud applause is equal to the performance is a different thing entirely. But the President seems to be on the affirmative on this hence he entrusted so much responsibility on him in his administration.

For now, it remains to be seen how Fashola will be able to discharge this enormous duty imposed on him to give the nation steady power supply, fix our bad roads and put in place a credible national housing policy that will ensure shelter for all.

Even the most avid fan of Fashola would readily agree that fixing Nigeria is a different ball game from fixing Lagos. Fashola was practically the CEO while in Lagos. He took decisions and saw to their executions without waiting for approval from any authority. As a cabinet minister, it will not be so. He will need to sell his ideas to the President and pray that he buys them. That may not be an easy task against the background of contending interests jostling for the President’s attention and approval. And where he succeeds in getting the President to buy his ideas, he would still hope and pray he gets the right allocation for their execution. It goes without saying that in the absence of adequate funding, Fashola cannot put up a credible performance. 

And talking about funding, Fashola had a healthy financial chest to work with in Lagos. With an enviable internally generated revenue base, an equally hefty federal allocation and a frequent recourse to borrowing, Lagos was rarely starved of fund to execute programmes. That is not likely to be the scenario Fashola will encounter as the Minister for Power, Works and Housing. With the price of crude oil still tumbling and a President who is already drumming about a nation that is broke, your bet is as good as mine that the right money for Fashola to perform will not be made available to him.

The power sector that he is going to oversee has been largely privatized but the distribution companies (DISCOs) are not financially healthy and indeed still tottering. The sector needs heavy financial investment if steady power supply must be achieved. Money is needed to improve on the distribution network to ensure the efficient transmission of power generated to the homes of Nigerians. As we speak, the transmission companies can only transmit about 5,000 megawatts (mw) to our homes owing to the poor state of the nation’s transmission network. Accordingly, even if the GENCOs (generating companies) can magically come up with 15,000 megawatts in the nearest future, this cannot rub on power supply in the country because we still do not have the right transmission network to wheel same to the homes of consumers for the much needed improvement in power supply. To make the distribution network more efficient will take time and heavy investment- two factors that seem to be in short supply at the moment.

Meanwhile, the operation of the DISCOs is further hampered by debt owed them by consumers that is in the region of N40 billion according to the operators of the DISCOs Ironically, the bulk of this debts is owed the DISCOs by Federal Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), and the military. Will Fashola be able to appeal to these agencies to pay their debts to the DISCOs or will it be business as usual where government agencies and the military see power as another national cake they don’t need to pay for to enjoy?   

In the area of housing, Fashola was often criticized for building houses for the rich while he was governor in Lagos State. What would be his policy as the Minister for Housing? Lagos State has more than a fair share of the rich in Nigeria so, Fashola could easily get away with building housing units for the rich to buy instead of building low cost housing units that are affordable to the masses. But will the same template work at the national level? Would he still adopt the mortgage policy he adopted in Lagos for Nigeria?

In the area of road construction where Fashola got so many accolades as a governor in Lagos, it remains to be seen if he can repeat that performance at the federal level? With the dwindling of revenue accruing to the Federal Government, will Fashola get adequate allocation to construct roads across the country as he did in Lagos? Will he experiment with concession of roads as he did in Lagos? A very strong advocate of taxation, will Fashola embark on the tolling of Federal highways across Nigeria to be able to generate money to maintain existing roads and construct new ones? And how would Nigerians react to all of this especially when Fashola’s party, the APC wants us to see it as a welfarist party?

Time will tell how all of this will pan out. Suffices to say that Fashola has a mean feat to perform as the Minister for Power, Works and Housing. In the euphoria of his appointment as Power minister by President Obasanjo, the late Bola Ige boasted that he would turn stones to bread in the power sector and ensure that Nigerians have stable power supply. Unfortunately, he was overwhelmed by the problems of the power sector. He just couldn’t make headway and President Obasanjo created a soft-landing for him as it were, by sending him to the Justice Ministry –where he actually ought to be in the first place. Will Fashola (a lawyer and Senior Advocate like Bola Ige) succeeds in turning stones to bread in the Power Ministry or he would be overwhelmed by the problems of the sector as it happened to Bola Ige? Your guess is as good as mine.

*Originally published on the 29th of November, 2015